Energía, Economía y Dinámica de Sistemas (GEEDS)https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/362972024-03-28T19:49:06Z2024-03-28T19:49:06ZModelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems modelSolé, J.Samsó, R.García-Ladona, E.García-Olivares, A.Ballabrera-Poy, J.Madurell, T.Turiel, A.Osychenko, O.Álvarez, D.Bardi, U.Baumann, M.Buchmann, K.Černý, M.De Lathouwer, J.-D.Eggler, L.Enríquez, J.M.Falsini, S.Feng, K.Ferreras, N.Hubacek, K.Jones, A.Kaclíková, R.Kerschner, C.Kimmich, C.Martelloni, G.Natalini, D.Nikolaev, A.Parrado, G.Papagianni, S.Perissi, I.Ploiner, C.Radulov, L.Sun, L.Theofilidi, M.Miguel González, Luis JavierLobejón Herrero, Luis FernandoLomas, Pedro L.Mediavilla Pascual, MargaritaNieto, JaimeRodrigo, PaulaCapellán Pérez, IñigoBlas, Ignacio deCastro Carranza, Carlos deDuce, CarmenFrechoso Escudero, Fernandohttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/662462024-02-14T20:00:45Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZThis paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment model pymedeas is introduced, which allows the exploration of the design and planning of appropriate strategies and policies for decarbonizing the energy sector at World and EU level. The main novelty of the new open-source model is that it addresses the energy transition by considering biophysical limits, availability of raw materials, and climate change impacts. This paper showcases the model capabilities through several simulation experiments to explore alternative pathways for the renewable transition. In the selected scenarios of this work, future shortage of fossil fuels is found to be the most influential factor of the simulations system evolution. Changes in efficiency and climate change damages are also important determinants influencing model outcomes.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZThermophysical study on the mixing properties of mixtures comprising 2-(2-methoxyethoxy)ethanol, butan-1-ol, butan-2-ol, and propan-1-olLifi, MohamedAbala, IlhamBriones Llorente, RaúlMuñoz Rujas, NataliaAguilar, FernandoM’hamdi Alaoui, Fatima Ezzahraehttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/635552023-12-18T10:17:31Z2023-01-01T00:00:00ZExcess enthalpy (HE), dynamic and kinematic viscosities (η, υ), density (ρ), and refractive index (nD) of mixtures comprising 2-(2-methoxyethoxy)ethanol, butan-1-ol, butan-2-ol, and propan-1-ol are presented at p = 0.1 MPa and at T = 298.15 and 313.15 K. Deviations in refractive index (ΔnD) is generated from experimental data of refractive index. Experimental data of ρ for all binary mixtures are predicted using the PC-SAFT (Perturbed Chain-Statistical Associating Fluid) EoS. Furthermore, HE and ΔnD are adjusted using the Redlich–Kister equation. However, the correlation of measured data of HE is performed by using the UNIQUAC and NRTL models.
2023-01-01T00:00:00ZIs energy intensity a driver of structural change? Empirical evidence from the global economyNieto Vega, JaimeMoyano Pesquera, Pedro BenitoMoyano, DiegoMiguel González, Luis Javierhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/579242023-01-09T20:00:46Z2022-01-01T00:00:00ZInput–output tables (IOTs) provide a relevant picture of economic structure as they represent the composition and interindustry relationships of an economy. The technical coefficients matrix (A matrix) is considered to capture the technological status of an economy; so, it is of special relevance for the evaluation of long-term, structural transformations, such as sustainability transitions in integrated assessment models (IAMs). The A matrix has typically been considered either static or exogenous. Endogenous structural change has rarely been applied to models. The objective of this paper is to analyze energy intensity, a widely used variable in IAMs, and its role as a driver of structural change. We therefore identify the most relevant technical coefficients in the IOTs time series and estimate an econometric model based on the energy intensity of five different final end-use energy sources. The results of this analysis show that energy intensity has a significant influence on the evolution of the A matrix and should therefore be taken into consideration when analyzing endogenous structural change in models.
2022-01-01T00:00:00ZDensity, viscosity, refractive index, and related thermophysical properties of dibutyl ether +2-butanol + cyclohexane ternary systemsAbala, IlhamLorenzo Bañuelos, MiriamLifi, HoudaLifi, MohamedMuñoz Rujas, NataliaAguilar Romero, FernandoM’hamdi Alaoui, Fatima Ezzahraehttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/572352022-11-18T20:05:17Z2022-01-01T00:00:00ZNew measured data for density, (ρ), dynamic and kinematic viscosities, (μD and μc), and refractive index, (nD), are presented at T = 298.15 K and p = 0.1 MPa for binary and ternary mixtures containing dibutyl ether, 2-butanol, and cyclohexane. As a result, the derived properties are estimated based on the measured data. Excess molar volume, (VE), dynamic viscosity deviation (ΔμD), and deviation in refractive index, (ΔnD), as derived properties, are fitted using the Redlich–Kister equation. In addition, perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory equation of state is employed to correlate the measured data of density.
2022-01-01T00:00:00ZEspecificación de interfaz web para videojuego CrossroadsRodríguez Pastor, Elenahttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/463802021-05-21T20:55:11Z2021-01-01T00:00:00ZWeb pages (html and css files) describing the interface of the learning game Crossroads 2.0. This interface has been performed in the frame of the workpackage WP11 of the Locomotion project.
2021-01-01T00:00:00ZThe Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide StrategiesArroyo Morocho, Flavio RobertoMiguel González, Luis Javierhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446642021-11-15T11:57:04Z2019-01-01T00:00:00ZClimate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO2 emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO2 emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO2 emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO2, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO2 that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period.
2019-01-01T00:00:00ZScenario analysis and sensitivity exploration of the MEDEAS Europe energy-economy-environment modelSamsó, RogerBlas Sanz, Ignacio dePerissi, IlariaMartelloni, GianlucaSolé, Jordihttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446602021-06-24T07:19:46Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZToday's decision-makers rely heavily on Integrated Assessment Models to guide the decarbonisation of the energy system. Uncertainty is embedded in the assumptions these models are built upon. Unless those uncertainties are adequately assessed, using Integrated Assessment Models for policy design is unadvised. In this work we run Monte Carlo simulations with the MEDEAS model at European Union scale to assess how the uncertainties on the main drivers of the transition affect key socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In addition, One-at-a-time sensitivity exploration is performed to grade the contribution of a set of model parameters to the uncertainty in the same key indicators. The combination of the uncertainties in the model drivers magnify the uncertainty in the model outputs, which widens over time. Parameters affecting sectorial and households' energy efficiency and households' transport energy use ranked amongst the most impacting ones on simulation results.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZPerspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in EuropeNikas, AlexandrosGambhir, Ajay J.Trutnevyte, EvelinaKoasidis, KonstantinosLund, HenrikThellufsen, Jakob ZinckMayer, DZachmann, GeorgMiguel González, Luis JavierFerreras Alonso, NoeliaSognnaes, IdaPeters, Glen P.Colombo, EmanuelaHowells, Mark I.Hawkes, AdamVan den Broek, M.Van de Ven, Dirk JanGonzález Eguino, MikelFlamos, AlexandrosDoukas, Harishttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446542021-06-24T07:19:43Z2021-01-01T00:00:00ZEurope’s capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence. Noting the lack of such a dedicated channel for the highly active yet currently fragmented European modelling landscape, we highlight the importance of transparency of modelling capabilities and processes, harmonisation of modelling parameters, disclosure of input and output datasets, interlinkages among models of different geographic granularity, and employment of models that transcend the highly harmonised core of tools used in model inter-comparisons. Finally, drawing from the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the need to expand the modelling comfort zone, by exploring extreme scenarios, disruptive innovations, and questions that transcend the energy and climate goals across the sustainability spectrum. A comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model framework offers a real example of “collective” science diplomacy, as an instrument to further support the ambitious goals of the EU Green Deal, in compliance with the EU claim to responsible research.
2021-01-01T00:00:00ZThe limits of transport decarbonization under the current growth paradigmBlas Sanz, Ignacio deMediavilla Pascual, MargaritaCapellán Pérez, IñigoDuce, Carmenhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446522021-06-24T07:19:41Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZAchieving ambitious reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) is particularly challenging for transportation due to the technical limitations of replacing oil-based fuels. We apply the integrated assessment model MEDEAS-World to study four global transportation decarbonization strategies for 2050. The results show that a massive replacement of oil-fueled individual vehicles to electric ones alone cannot deliver GHG reductions consistent with climate stabilization and could result in the scarcity of some key minerals, such as lithium and magnesium. In addition, energy-economy feedbacks within an economic growth system create a rebound effect that counters the benefits of substitution. The only strategy that can achieve the objectives globally follows the Degrowth paradigm, combining a quick and radical shift to lighter electric vehicles and non-motorized modes with a drastic reduction in total transportation demand.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZAn ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EUNieto Vega, JaimeCarpintero Redondo, ÓscarLobejón Herrero, Luis FernandoMiguel González, Luis Javierhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446382021-06-24T07:19:40Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZThe Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZLow-carbon energy governance : scenarios to accelerate the change in the energy matrix in EcuadorArroyo Morocho, Flavio RobertoMiguel González, Luis Javierhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446042021-11-15T11:56:33Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZThis article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO2 emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different projected scenarios, with oil as the most important source of energy. The increase observed in final energy consumption was mainly associated with the transport and industry sectors. A reduction in energy intensity was projected for the different scenarios, which could be associated with the projected economic growth. The results obtained were used to build a proposal for energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions. The proposed changes to the national energy matrix could be the factors that will contribute most to the achievement of carbon emission reductions projected by the different scenarios; changes in the energy matrix are mainly associated with the development of projects to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies, mainly hydropower.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZThe role of renewable energies for the sustainable energy governance and environmental policies for the mitigation of climate change in EcuadorArroyo Morocho, Flavio RobertoMiguel González, Luis Javierhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/446032021-11-15T11:56:49Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZThis article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation goals. Ecuador’s energy mix is dominated using fossil fuels and produces only 7.8% of its energy supply from renewable energy. The scenario analysis suggests that using the example of international renewable energy policies will achieve sustainable energy development in Ecuador. Relying less on fossil fuels and decentralizing the electricity sector from the use of thermoelectric plants is the great challenge for the country. Using the enormous water potential that Ecuador has and taking advantage of the sources of solar, biomass and wind energy available in the country will reduce the forecast of 60,233.70 KT CO2 by 2030 that would be reached if current consumption conditions and energy mix are maintained, while designing a long-term energy planning with a greater participation of renewable energies would forecast a CO2 emission of 41,232.30 KT, that is, a reduction of 31.5% in emissions.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZStandard, Point of Use, and Extended Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) from Comprehensive Material Requirements of Present Global Wind, Solar, and Hydro Power TechnologiesCastro Carranza, Carlos deCapellán Pérez, Iñigohttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/410592021-06-24T07:19:34Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZWhether renewable energy sources (RES) will provide sufficient energy surplus to entirely power complex modern societies is under discussion. We contribute to this debate by estimating the current global average energy return on energy invested (EROI) for the five RES technologies with the highest potential of electricity generation from the comprehensive and internally consistent estimations of their material requirements at three distinct energy system boundaries: standard farm-gate (EROIst), final at consumer point-of-use (EROIfinal), and extended (including indirect investments, EROIext). EROIst levels found fall within the respective literature ranges. Expanding the boundaries closer to the system level, we find that only large hydroelectricity would currently have a high EROIext ~ 6.5:1, while the rest of variable RES would be below 3:1: onshore wind (2.9:1), offshore wind (2.3:1), solar Photovoltaic (PV) (1.8:1), and solar Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (<1:1). These results indicate that, very likely, the global average EROIext levels of variable RES are currently below those of fossil fuel-fired electricity. It remains unknown if technological improvements will be able to compensate for factors, which will become increasingly important as the variable RES scale-up. Hence, without dynamically accounting for the evolution of the EROI of the system, the viability of sustainable energy systems cannot be ensured, especially for modern societies pursuing continuous economic growth
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZMEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraintsCapellán Pérez, IñigoBlas Sanz, Ignacio deNieto Vega, JaimeCastro Carranza, Carlos deMiguel González, Luis JavierCarpintero Redondo, ÓscarMediavilla Pascual, MargaritaLobejón Herrero, Luis FernandoFerreras Alonso, NoeliaRodrigo, PaulaFrechoso Escudero, FernandoÁlvarez Antelo, Davidhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/410582021-06-24T07:19:32Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZA diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input–output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work.
2020-01-01T00:00:00ZAssessing vulnerabilities and limits in the transition to renewable energies: Land requirements under 100% solar energy scenariosCapellán Pérez, IñigoCastro Carranza, Carlos deArto Olaizola, Iñakihttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/404152021-06-24T07:19:30Z2017-01-01T00:00:00ZThe transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land. Nevertheless, most analysesto date have concluded that land will not pose significant constraints on this transition. Here, we estimate theland-use requirements to supply all currently consumed electricity andfinal energy with domestic solar energyfor 40 countries considering two key issues that are usually not taken into account: (1) the need to cope with thevariability of the solar resource, and (2) the real land occupation of solar technologies. We focus on solar since ithas the highest power density and biophysical potential among renewables. The exercise performed shows thatfor many advanced capitalist economies the land requirements to cover their current electricity consumptionwould be substantial, the situation being especially challenging for those located in northern latitudes with highpopulation densities and high electricity consumption per capita. Assessing the implications in terms of landavailability (i.e., land not already used for human activities), the list of vulnerable countries enlargessubstantially (the EU-27 requiring around 50% of its available land), few advanced capitalist economiesrequiring low shares of the estimated available land. Replication of the exercise to explore the land-userequirements associated with a transition to a 100% solar powered economy indicates this transition may bephysically unfeasible for countries such as Japan and most of the EU-27 member states. Their vulnerability isaggravated when accounting for the electricity andfinal energy footprint, i.e., the net embodied energy ininternational trade. If current dynamics continue, emerging countries such as India might reach a similarsituation in the future. Overall, our results indicate that the transition to renewable energies maintaining thecurrent levels of energy consumption has the potential to create new vulnerabilities and/or reinforce existingones in terms of energy and food security and biodiversity conservation.
2017-01-01T00:00:00ZIs community energy really non-existent in post-socialist Europe? Examining recent trends in 16 countriesCapellán Pérez, IñigoJohanisova, NadiaYoung, JasminkaKunze, Conradhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/400252021-06-24T07:19:29Z2020-01-01T00:00:00ZCommunity energy (CE) initiatives are developing in many regions of the world through a great diversity of typologies. Europe has a leading role with thousands of ongoing projects of small and medium size, which are however unevenly distributed over the continent. The density of CE projects is highest in North-Western and parts of Central Europe; on the contrary, their spread in post-socialist European countries (PSECs) has been reported to be much more limited. However, the (under)development of CE in PSECs remains an understudied topic in the literature. In this paper, we present an exploratory overview of the situation and briefly discuss its potential explanatory factors for 16 PSECs. We find differing development levels of progress, with Croatia outstanding with a diversity of projects and a certain maturation of the field, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia with a reduced number of rather small-scale projects, while in the remaining countries no operational relevant projects have been found to date. We present our methods, overviews by country and some tentative explanations. We suggest further research to be directed towards in-depth analysis of single countries and relevant project cases in PSECs.
2020-01-01T00:00:00Z