2024-03-29T11:42:24Zhttp://uvadoc.uva.es/oai/requestoai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/378032021-06-23T10:25:23Zcom_10324_1160com_10324_931com_10324_894col_10324_1314
An agent-based model of rational optimism
Gutiérrez Díez, Pedro José
We prove that, in standard insurance markets, rational agents have
an incentive to choose as subjective probabilities those incurring in an
optimism bias, since they imply real and objective net gains. Our agent-based
model of insurance markets thus clarifies how rational optimism naturally
appears and persists in insurance markets, opening up the possibility to explain
the optimism bias observed in other environments on the basis of the theory of
salient perturbations. Our findings are consistent with the empirical evidence
showing a systematic and coherent moderate optimism bias of agents in the
assessment of probabilities.
2019-09-07T19:22:55Z
2019-09-07T19:22:55Z
2019-09-07T19:22:55Z
2018
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2018 Vol.21 No.3, pp.155 - 183
1466-8297
http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/37803
10.1504/IJRAM.2018.093743
155
3
183
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
21
1741-5241
spa
https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=93743
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
Inderscience
Inderscience