https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/36297 2026-04-15T02:05:16Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/80495 Well-being impacts of climate change, particularly on human integrity (Health) and living conditions (Place), are severe but often underrepresented in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). When included, these impacts are typically modelled using simplistic top-down approaches, while bottom-up representations linking hazards to impacts, which offer high transparency and process detail, are largely overlooked. Recent trends connecting IAMs with the Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) community offer an opportunity to improve the representation of well-being damages. Here, we conduct a scoping review resulting in a mapping of 37 modelling studies, revealing a diverse range of approaches, with variation in hazards, impacts, and modelling choices. Key gaps include weak representation of inequality, a lack of multi-channel assessments, and an overrepresentation of northern regions. We propose a roadmap to enhance climate impacts representation on Health and Place in IAMs, using improved data and large-scale multiregional models to generate results that better support decision-making. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/76300 Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are computational tools used to explore energy futures and sustainable transitions. This paper presents the WILIAM-TERRA model, a novel platform for analyzing the interactions be- tween land, food, energy and the environment. WILIAM-TERRA is integrated in the Within Limits Integrated Assessment Model (WILIAM), a new open-source model that has been designed to address several limitations of existing IAMs. WILIAM-TERRA explores the energy transitions, both from the point of view of the sinks (climate change) and from the point of view of the resources (biofuels, forests and solar electricity). Additionally, is focuses on the ecological transition of the food system including dietary changes, sustainable agriculture and regional food exchanges. These features provide a broader scope than the traditional emissions-based approach of most IAMs, enabling a more systemic analysis. Some results of the interaction of diet policies with forest and cropland expansion, of the effect of wood extraction in forests integrity and of the carbon capture in grasslands have been presented. These results represent only a small sample of what can be analysed with WILIAM-TERRA and should be further explored in the future. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/76288 While climate change is a global problem, solutions are often rooted at the local level. Conse- quently, the capacity to mitigate or adapt to climate change in local contexts is increasingly recognized as a crucial element in coping with it. Climate policies must be highly context- dependent, as they need to account for local needs and priorities. This article contributes to the ongoing research on participatory climate change socioeconomic scenarios and climate- resilient development pathways by presenting a participatory methodology for creating bottom-up, locally tailored climate adaptation and mitigation storylines. The methodology combines a visioning technique with an analytical framework that categorizes the visioning outcomes, facilitating scenario development while addressing real challenges to promote the co- creation of viable, site-specific solutions. We applied this methodology with policymakers from four case studies across Europe, revealing significant differences in how mitigation and adapta- tion are prioritized, policy actions chosen, key actors involved, and economic sectors impacted in each case. These findings underscore the value of the method in bridging local and scientific knowledge and generating context-sensitive narratives which can be compared between them. Finally, we present a set of qualitative climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios, outlining possible and desirable developments for each case study by 2050. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/75350 This document is the subject of a study on the impacts of climate change on crop yields. To do this, the study includes a literature review on this subject, followed by an implementation of data in the WILIAM model and an analysis of these data. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of the environmental module of the WILIAM Model. 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/75234 User manual of the WILIAM model 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/75095 Calibration of the Land Uses submodule of the WILIAM-TERRA model 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/75091 Literature review of land use changes. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/74281 The aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to assess the energy future up to 2050 for Ecuador considering its condition of oil producing country. Three scenarios have been developed with different assumptions regarding national and global oil availability under a Business-As-Usual narrative. Energy demand would have a 2.4-fold increase by 2050 with predominance of petroleum products in a BAU scenario with unlimited oil access. In constrained scenarios, restricted availability of oil might pressure final demand to be reduced in 31%–40% compared to BAU. Limited imports of oil and petroleum products might produce shortages in supply, causing a downfall in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on these fuels Electricity would partially substitute fossil fuels but is not enough to offset economy decay in constrained scenarios. Limiting oil exports would not have an important effect since the decline of Ecuador's oil wells is expected to be too fast. Oil exports would cease by 2030–2045. When BAU scenarios are evaluated considering limited fossil energy access in a decaying world oil production, arise the necessity to explore new strategies to deal with an energy/economic shock. 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/73879 The environmental imperative driving the search for alternative fuels has fostered the rise of biofuels from biomass, offering renewable solutions that curtail petroleum dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. Propanol, as a primary biofuel, serves as an oxygenated additive, enhancing combustion efficiency and mitigating air pollutants. Propanol’s oxygen-rich composition enhances engine performance and diminishes emissions. Studies on alkoxyethanols-gasoline blends showcase significant reductions in toxic pollutants, underscoring the need for thermodynamic understanding to foster cleaner energy. This study presents high-temperature and high-pressure density data for the binary mixture of 1-propanol, an alcohol, and 2-(2-methoxyethoxy)ethanol, an alkoxyethanol, covering temperatures ranging from 298.15 to 393.15 K and pressures from 0.1 to 140 MPa. The experimental density data were generated using a vibrating tube densitometer with an uncertainty of 0.7 × 10–3 g cm–3. Experimental density data were fitted by using the Tait-like equation, with low standard deviations. Also, the experimental measurements were correlated using PC-SAFT and Peng–Robinson equations of state. The derived properties, such as excess volume, isobaric thermal expansivity, and isothermal compressibility, were also calculated. 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/73606 Solar power is space-intensive and will contribute to intensify land competition, a factor typically not captured by models. This study uses the Integrated Assessment Model WILIAM which explicitly represents the land use changes driven by solar energy expansion through a hard link of its energy and land modules including net energy restrictions. A Green Growth type transition is simulated for the European Union with a high renewable energy share target in electricity mix by 2050, testing different land use planning policies. The results show that a rapid deployment of solar power in land without land policies can intensify land use conflicts and increase associated land use change emissions. Land-use requirements for solar would be 1–1.4 % of total land (corresponding to 55–75 % of urban land), which could be problematic locally. The implementation of land-use protection and land siting policies could reduce 23 % of total land occupied by solar photovoltaics panels (with respect to forest and cropland the area occupied could be reduced up to 88 %), and 23–47 % of the land use change associated emissions with respect to a scenario where not policies are applied. These results show the importance of integrating land use and energy planning policies to alleviate the undesired impacts. 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/69714 The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares. 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67499 The current climate change is due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. The large number of factors and variables that, directly or indirectly, affect GHG emissions, as well as the multiple and complex relationships between them, makes it more difficult to decide upon the best actions to take to curb or alleviate climate change and the analysis of the consequences that each decision brings with it. This has led to the development of complex simulation models called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) models, focused especially on climate change. The development and use of these models to guide policy decisions on climate change has grown in recent years, as highlighted in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This work is a panoramic review of the main existing IAMs and discusses their main features. The article focuses especially on analyzing the limitations of current IAMs, which should drive future developments towards these tools. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67496 The long-term supply of nickel to society was assessed with the WORLD7 model for the global nickel cycle, using new estimates of nickel reserves and resources, indicating that the best estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources for nickel is in the range of 650–720 million ton. This is significantly larger than earlier estimates. The extractable amounts were stratified by extraction cost and ore grade in the model, making them extractable only after price increases and cost reductions. The model simulated extraction, supply, ore grades, and market prices. The assessment predicts future scarcity and supply problems after 2100 for nickel. The model reconstructs observed extraction, supply and market prices for the period 1850–2020, and is used to simulate development for the period 2020–2200. The quality of nickel ore has decreased significantly from 1850 to 2020 and will continue to do so in the future according to the simulated predictions from the WORLD7 model. For nickel, extraction rates are suggested to reach their maximum value in 2050, and that most primary nickel resources will have been exhausted by 2130. After 2100, the supply per capita for nickel will decline towards exhaustion if business-as-usual is continuing. This will be manifested as reduced supply and increased prices. The peak year can be delayed by a maximum of 100 years if recycling rates are improved significantly and long before scarcity is visible. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67495 Poorer countries often face a severe trade-off: the need to improve socio-economic conditions is hard to balance with the maintenance of key ecological processes. As a case study, we select Colombia, a Latin American country with almost 10% of its inhabitants living in extreme poverty. We elaborate a water–food–labour (WFL) nexus grounded on a sub-national Environmentally Extended Input–Output (EEIO) analysis to assess the virtual water trade (VWT) and virtual informal labour (VIL) flows across administrative departments and economic sectors related to domestic trade. The main results are the following: high cross-departmental resource interdependence both in terms of VWT and VIL, rich departments highly depend on the resources of their neighbouring trading partners, extreme poverty conditions shown by economically isolated departments, and considerable income inequality in the food production sectors. Moreover, departments that are net exporters of virtual water suffer from water stress that might be exacerbated by future high rainfall variability due to climate change. These results suggest that strategies to attain sustainable development goals (SDGs) must deal with the biophysical constraints and the economic and political feasibility of the proposed solutions. In this vein, we argue that a holistic framework, grounded on quantitative analyses, is necessary to support informed policy decisions for the simultaneous achievement of multiple (possibly contrasting) goals. Moreover, severe spatial imbalances call for local policy responses coordinated at the national level. 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67493 The global cement and concrete demand, production, supply, and the general global market price was modelled using the WORLD7 model for different future scenarios. The model was used to analyze some possible measures to reduce the climate impact of cement production. The main result from this study is that three factors may bring regulatory limitations to be imposed on cement production. The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere, the amount of iron used in construction and the use of energy in production are the main factors that may cause limitations. Cement accounts for about 8% of the global CO2 emissions and energy use at present, and this fraction is projected by the simulations to continue to increase. To reduce CO2 emissions from cement production, ending fossil fuel use for calcination, combined with a change towards using mortar as an alternative for making concrete should be con- sidered. Our conclusion is that the long-term limitation for cement production is the availability of carbon-free energy, and the availability of iron for reinforcement bars. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for cement calcination may reduce the future the contribution from cement by 38%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 50%, the contribution to the future global average temperature increase is reduced by 62%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 90% is a reduction by 90% in the contribution from cement. 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67492 The replacement of internal combustion engines by electric vehicles (EVs) is being promoted towards the decarbonisation of the transportation sector. EVs require important amounts of materials, some of which are being assessed as potentially critical in the future. In this work, we develop a submodule of material requirements for transport for an integrated assessment model with great detail in the representation of electric transportation modes. This submodule includes the following novel characteristics: a portfolio of EV battery subtechnologies (LMO, NMC622, NMC811, NCA & LFP) and EV chargers, including the required connections to the grid; comprehensive coverage of their material intensities; and a dynamic allocation function for EV battery subtechnologies, taking into account the changes over time of their Energy Stored Over energy Invested (ESOI) and material scarcities. We obtain ESOIst levels for household 4-wheelers in the range of 1.1–2.3 : 1 depending on the subtechnology, and lower than 1 : 1 for all subtechnologies when expanding the boundaries (ESOIfinal) to include grids and chargers. The NCA and NMC subtechnologies are the best performing options in terms of ESOI; however, they are more dependent on critical materials such as nickel, cobalt and manganese. Expanding the boundaries to include chargers significantly increases the GHG footprint of EVs. The integration of these features into a dynamic modelling framework, including the demand of materials from the rest of the economy, allows us to analyse different decarbonisation strategies, taking into account the feedback between the energy and material dimensions. Simulating the MEDEAS-World model including the developed submodule until 2050 for 3 different global transport transition strategies, we find that reserves of copper (with significant contributions from EV chargers and railways), cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and graphite would be depleted in at least one of the scenarios studied. The Degrowth scenario puts less pressure on material endowments. Recycling is an important strategy to reduce criticalities, but its effectiveness is limited as the materials are trapped for long time periods in stocks in-use in the system, which is worsened by the growth-oriented nature of the current economic paradigm. 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z