Terrorist incidents and counter terrorist policies: a system dynamics model

Abstract

According to the Global Terrorism Database, Asia was the continent that suffers the highest number of terrorist attacks and the highest number of casualties during the period 1998-2007. One of the numerous terrorist organizations operating on its territory is Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) that was created in 1999. From its inception to 2007, it has staged ninety attacks generating 1,945 casualties. This paper presents a system dynamics model to try to reproduce the number of monthly incidents of that organization. The construction is carried out adapting to the organization those feedback processes that explain the survival over time of a terrorist organization. Comparing the data series and the data obtained by simulation, the paper examines the degree in which the model reproduces the incidents of the organization. After checking the usefulness of the model, different counter terrorist measures are tested in order to assess their effectiveness.