Pairwise dichotomous cohesiveness measures

Abstract

Abstract In a framework where experts or agents express their opinions in a dichotomous way, we analyze the cohesiveness of their opinions on axed set of issues in a population. A parametric family of related measures are introduced and axiomatically characterized. They are ordinally equivalent when the population isxed, and some further properties are proved. In order to argue that this restricted dichotomous situation is nevertheless versatile, the paper ends with several empirical illustrations based on real forecasts (for the 2012 American presidential election) and elections (with real data from referenda in two countries and from elections in several scientic societies).