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dc.contributor.authorDomingo Ruiz, Darío 
dc.contributor.authorVicente Serrano, Sergio Martín
dc.contributor.authorGómez Almaraz, Cristina 
dc.contributor.authorOlano Mendoza, José Miguel 
dc.contributor.authorSangüesa Barreda, Gabriel 
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-19T09:48:32Z
dc.date.available2024-12-19T09:48:32Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.identifier.citationForest Ecology and Management, marzo 2024, vol. 555, 121695es
dc.identifier.issn0378-1127es
dc.identifier.urihttps://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/72871
dc.descriptionProducción Científicaes
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming modulates the spatial and temporal occurrence of insect outbreaks, leading to as-yet-unknown effects on forests ecosystems. Warmer trends may favour the upward and northward expansion of pests, albeit increased exposure to heat events and droughts may also hamper insect growth and development. Thus far, further research is needed about the balance of climate warming on pine processionary moth (PPM) (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) development stages, especially at broader scales, despite being the main conifer-defoliating insect in the Mediterranean area. This research analyses the relationships of PPM with the climatic conditions during its most vulnerable development phases in Spain to provide base-information for forest managers. We hypothesize that warmer winter temperatures will increase PPM growth at their larval feeding stage, whereas summer-heat events will reduce PPM rates from egg and early larval stages, leading to counterbalanced effects of climate warming. Furthermore, we expect dry springs will allow an earlier development of PPM and higher incidence of outbreaks. To analyse climate effects on PPM populations in Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha, and Navarre (37 to 42°N), we compiled information from the Regional Forest Services comprising up to 26 years of monitoring data from 2465 forest stands dominated by Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris. We fitted Cumulative Link Mixed Models (CLMM) to test the climate effects on four PPM defoliation severity levels. Our results support higher PPM larvae survival and incidence due to warmer winter conditions, but also the reduction of PPM population size under summer heat conditions. Particularly, the increasing incidence associated to warmer winters during the larval defoliating stage is counterbalanced by the decreasing population at earlier life stages during summer heat events. Spring drought also plays an important role on PPM incidence rates, but its effect is idiosyncratic to each region, suggesting an adaptation of PPM populations to regional conditions, claiming to tailor-made forest management endeavours. This study reveals that a better comprehension of abiotic effects along the whole PPM life cycle is paramount to understand the impact of climate warming on insect outbreaks which shorten wood production and carbon sequestration of Mediterranean forests.es
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfes
dc.language.isoenges
dc.publisherElsevieres
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subject.classificationMediterranean forestses
dc.subject.classificationWarming-up trendes
dc.subject.classificationHeat eventes
dc.subject.classificationDroughtes
dc.subject.classificationThaumetopoea pityocampaes
dc.titleSummer heat waves could counterbalance the increasing incidence of pine processionary due to warmer winters in Mediterranean pine forestses
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees
dc.rights.holder2024 The Author(s)es
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121695es
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112724000057es
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage121695es
dc.identifier.publicationtitleForest Ecology and Managementes
dc.identifier.publicationvolume555es
dc.peerreviewedSIes
dc.description.projectJunta de Castilla y León/FEDER (VA171P20)es
dc.description.projectMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación-Agencia Estatal de Investigación (PID2020-118444GA-I00)es
dc.description.projectMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades-Agencia Estatal de Investigación (IJC2019-040571-I)es
dc.description.projectUnión Europea Next Generation EU Margarita Salas (MS-240621)es
dc.rightsAtribución 4.0 Internacional*
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiones
dc.subject.unesco3106 Ciencia Forestales


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