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    Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/73295

    Título
    Between continuous presents and disruptive futures: Identifying the ideological backbones of global environmental scenarios
    Autor
    Lauer, Arthur
    Castro Carranza, Carlos deAutoridad UVA
    Carpintero Redondo, ÓscarAutoridad UVA Orcid
    Año del Documento
    2024
    Editorial
    Elsevier
    Descripción
    Producción Científica
    Documento Fuente
    Futures, octubre 2024, vol. 163, 103460
    Resumen
    Despite the great relevance of global environmental scenarios for the study of environmental change and sustainability transitions, they have rarely been the object of analysis for scholars of the social sciences. In this article, we analyze the ideological assumptions of 993 global environmental scenarios contained in 243 academic works. By developing a new categorization of environmental scenarios, we investigate the economic and governance organization reflected in the scenarios, as well as the portrayed human-nature relationships. We find that global environmental scenarios developed and used by the scientific community largely reproduce rather than break with dominant power structures in the economic, governance and cultural domain. The majority of scenarios reflects an anthropocentric worldview and assumes that the logic of global capitalism and of the Westphalian state-based governance system will not change radically during the 21st century. The implicit solution of sustainability problems dominating these scenarios is a combination of continuous economic growth, rapid technological progress and an international (environmental) agreement. ‘Alternative scenarios’ are scarce, often only problematize one dimension of the social structure of world society and frequently lack explicit drivers of change or pathways to desirable futures. To increase the diversity of scenarios, future research should focus on refining and quantifying existing post-capitalist, post-state-centric and/or ecocentric scenarios, and on developing a range of scenarios whose storyline systematically problematize or even break with current power structures.
    Palabras Clave
    Global environmental scenarios
    Sustainability transitions
    Narratives
    Post-capitalism
    Human-nature relationships
    ISSN
    0016-3287
    Revisión por pares
    SI
    DOI
    10.1016/j.futures.2024.103460
    Version del Editor
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001423
    Propietario de los Derechos
    © 2024 The Author(s)
    Idioma
    eng
    URI
    https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/73295
    Tipo de versión
    info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
    Derechos
    openAccess
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    • DEP20 - Artículos de revista [181]
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