Understanding and Managing Depopulation with System Dynamics: A Case Study in Western Spain (Vitigudino)

Abstract

SPANDAM is a system dynamics model designed to examine the causes of depopulation in a given area and simulate the effects of policies aimed at addressing or mitigating depopulation dynamics and their consequences. Three scenarios have been simulated for the Vitigudino region: a baseline scenario, a moderate policy scenario, and a more aggressive policy scenario. Other measures are implemented at varying levels of intensity depending on the scenario. The simulation results show that the region's attractiveness significantly increases as a result of the implemented policies and the improved quality of life for residents. However, this improvement is not sufficient to reverse the depopulation dynamics. The increase in net migration, which turns positive in the highest-intervention scenario, does not offset the negative natural population growth. Nevertheless, the depopulation process slows down considerably, and although it is not fully reversed, the improvement in residents' quality of life is, in itself, a result that justifies political intervention in the area.