Examining the Effects of Different Policy Approaches to Rural Depopulation Across Spanish Territories: Evidence From a Multi‐Scenario Simulation Study

Abstract

Rural depopulation linked to aging populations, economic decline, and reduced public services has accelerated migration to urban centres in various parts of the European Union and increasingly attracts the attention of policymakers. This study employs the SPANDAM system dynamics model to evaluate the effectiveness of different policy approaches across three representative Spanish rural territories (Zamora, Pirineo Navarro, and Vitigudino) through five simulated scenarios: business-as-usual (BS), macroeconomic focus (PS1), rural economic development (PS2), service-centred approach (PS3), and combined strategy (PS4). Results demonstrate that while targeted interventions can improve socioeconomic indicators and slow demographic decline, only the comprehensive strategy (PS4) combining economic and service policies showed significant impacts, nearly stabilizing Zamora's population and reducing the decline in Pirineo Navarro to a very slow pace. However, even this integrated approach failed to fully reverse depopulation in areas with severe demographic deterioration like Vitigudino, highlighting how initial conditions critically determine policy effectiveness. The findings yield several key insights: (1) national economic improvements (PS1) have minimal local impact in the absence of concrete policies on the territory, underscoring the need for place-based strategies; (2) larger municipalities benefit more than smaller municipalities from many of the policies implemented due to economies of scale; and (3) the implementation of partial policies (PS2 and PS3) improves the quality of life of the inhabitants, but does not halt the depopulation process. These points underscore the imperative for enhanced multi-level governance coordination to enable integrated policy interventions that can meaningfully counteract rural depopulation.