2026-04-22T21:58:42Zhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/oai/request

oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/697142024-09-12T19:02:36Zcom_10324_36297com_10324_954com_10324_894col_10324_36298

Calheiros, Tomás Beça, Pedro Capela Lourenço, Tiago Eggler, Lukas Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita Ferreras Alonso, Noelia Ramos Díez, Iván Samsó, Roger Distefano, Tiziano Pastor, Amandine 2024-09-12T07:36:06Z 2024-09-12T07:36:06Z 2024 Sustainability, 2024, Vol. 16, Nº. 4, 1548 2071-1050 https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/69714 10.3390/su16041548 1548 4 Sustainability 16 2071-1050 Producción Científica The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares. Fundación Portuguesa para la Ciencia y la Tecnología (FCT) - (project UIDB/00329/2020) Unión Europea, European Union’s Horizon 2020 - (grant 821105) application/pdf eng MDPI info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ © 2024 The authors Atribución 4.0 Internacional Hydropower Energía hidráulica Integrated Assessment Model Sustainable development Desarrollo sostenible Renewable energy resources Energías renovables Climate change Clima - Cambios Climate change mitigation Clima - Cambios - Aspecto del medio ambiente Climatology Environment 2502 Climatología 5312.05 Energía 3308 Ingeniería y Tecnología del Medio Ambiente Assessing hydropower potential under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios using integrated assessment modelling info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/4/1548 SI