2026-07-21T16:24:03Zhttps://uvadoc.uva.es/oai/request

oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/590952025-03-07T08:17:10Zcom_10324_1179com_10324_931com_10324_894col_10324_1306

Gorgojo Galindo, Óscar 72d9a2c406e8cdae 600 0000-0002-6470-3894 Martín Fernández, Marta bb4001f61d18cbd7 500 0000-0003-2714-8120 Peñarrubia Ponce, María Jesús bafd00c4a6ece8d8 600 Álvarez González, Francisco Javier 8d6f2f2adc53991f 600 0000-0002-7566-5678 Ortega Loubon, Christian Joseph 1f9f7358-16d7-447e-992c-4953935e8e5b 600 Gonzalo Benito, Hugo 7662aa346a4250b5 600 Martínez de Paz, Pedro José 843687f30e0f9cc6 600 Miramontes González, José Pablo 2b687cf7ef473a10 600 0000-0002-2247-9679 Gómez Sánchez, Esther 066156341b954ef8 600 Poves Álvarez, Rodrigo a345131a75ede382 600 Jorge Monjas, Pablo 6994d42f78867ce9 600 Tamayo Gómez, Eduardo 6336dab28037c784 600 Heredia Rodríguez, María e57309cc9e07840f 600 Tamayo Velasco, Álvaro c664e9ae6c65ee30 600 2023-04-13T07:44:57Z 2023-04-13T07:44:57Z 2021 Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2021, Vol. 10, Nº. 22, 5431 2077-0383 https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/59095 10.3390/jcm10225431 5431 22 Journal of Clinical Medicine 10 2077-0383 Producción Científica Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), p = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Instituto de Salud Carlos III - ( Proyecto COV20/00491) Consejeria de Educación de Castilla y León - (Proyecto VA256P20) Junta de Castilla y León y Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) - (Proyecto EDU/1100/2017) application/pdf eng MDPI info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ © 2021 The authors Atribución 4.0 Internacional COVID-19 COVID-19 (Disease) - Diagnosis Coronaviruses - Diagnosis Cytokines - Therapeutic use Biomarkers 2420 Virología Predictive modeling of poor outcome in severe COVID-19: A single-center observational study based on clinical, cytokine and laboratory profiles info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/22/5431 SI THUMBNAIL Predictive-Modeling-of-Poor-Outcome-in-Severe-COVID-19.pdf.jpg Predictive-Modeling-of-Poor-Outcome-in-Severe-COVID-19.pdf.jpg IM Thumbnail image/jpeg 3620 https://uvadoc.uva.es/bitstream/10324/59095/4/Predictive-Modeling-of-Poor-Outcome-in-Severe-COVID-19.pdf.jpg d33648eecef8e74af615a6a325087e2e MD5 4 LICENSE license.txt license.txt text/plain 3929 https://uvadoc.uva.es/bitstream/10324/59095/3/license.txt 289d98c1665ee0d20312360f0e8643c8 MD5 3 CC-LICENSE license_rdf license_rdf application/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8 921 https://uvadoc.uva.es/bitstream/10324/59095/2/license_rdf 9eecc1514e7247cad41e4db756248760 MD5 2 ORIGINAL Predictive-Modeling-of-Poor-Outcome-in-Severe-COVID-19.pdf Predictive-Modeling-of-Poor-Outcome-in-Severe-COVID-19.pdf application/pdf 2987041 https://uvadoc.uva.es/bitstream/10324/59095/1/Predictive-Modeling-of-Poor-Outcome-in-Severe-COVID-19.pdf 1555a69e8a4cde3c24f0afba0e50b5e2 MD5 1 10324/59095 oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/59095 2025-03-07 09:17:10.134 UVaDOC repositorio@uva.es 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