RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios
A1 Nieto Vega, Jaime
A1 Carpintero Redondo, Óscar
A1 Miguel González, Luis Javier
A1 Blas Sanz, Ignacio de
K1 Política energética
K1 Política climática
K1 Energy policy
K1 Climate policy
K1 5312.05 Energía
AB Integrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module within a broader system dynamics model (MEDEAS) has been developed. The model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends; Green Growth (GG), undertaking the low-carbon transition according to the Paris Agreement set of policies and with high GDP growth standards; and Post-Growth (PG), testing the sustainability transition under a GDP non-growth/degrowth approach. The results reveal the conflict between economic growth, climate policy and the sustainability of resources. Whereas a BAU approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals, a GG view would not only face the downsizing of economic output, but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 °C objective. The success of the PG approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution.
PB Elsevier
SN 0301-4215
YR 2019
FD 2019
LK http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/39272
UL http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/39272
LA eng
NO Energy Policy, 2019, 111090 (In Press)
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 21-nov-2024