RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU
A1 Nieto Vega, Jaime
A1 Carpintero Redondo, Óscar
A1 Lobejón Herrero, Luis Fernando
A1 Miguel González, Luis Javier
K1 Macroeconomía ecológica
K1 Ecological macroeconomics
K1 Energy Roadmap 2050
K1 5312.05 Energía
AB The Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.
SN 0301-4215
YR 2020
FD 2020
LK http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/44638
UL http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/44638
LA eng
NO Energy Policy, 2020, Volume 145, 111726
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 17-jul-2024