RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Scenario analysis and sensitivity exploration of the MEDEAS Europe energy-economy-environment model
A1 Samsó, Roger
A1 Blas Sanz, Ignacio de
A1 Perissi, Ilaria
A1 Martelloni, Gianluca
A1 Solé, Jordi
K1 Transición energética
K1 Sustentabilidad
K1 33 Ciencias Tecnológicas
AB Today's decision-makers rely heavily on Integrated Assessment Models to guide the decarbonisation of the energy system. Uncertainty is embedded in the assumptions these models are built upon. Unless those uncertainties are adequately assessed, using Integrated Assessment Models for policy design is unadvised. In this work we run Monte Carlo simulations with the MEDEAS model at European Union scale to assess how the uncertainties on the main drivers of the transition affect key socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In addition, One-at-a-time sensitivity exploration is performed to grade the contribution of a set of model parameters to the uncertainty in the same key indicators. The combination of the uncertainties in the model drivers magnify the uncertainty in the model outputs, which widens over time. Parameters affecting sectorial and households' energy efficiency and households' transport energy use ranked amongst the most impacting ones on simulation results.
PB Elsevier
SN 2211-467X
YR 2020
FD 2020
LK http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/44660
UL http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/44660
LA eng
NO Energy Strategy Reviews, 2020, vol. 32, p. 100582
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 18-nov-2024