RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Impact of aleatoric, stochastic and epistemic uncertainties on project cost contingency reserves
A1 Curto Lorenzo, David
A1 Acebes Senovilla, Fernando
A1 González Varona, José Manuel
A1 Poza Garcia, David Jesús
K1 Cost contingency
K1 Costo de contingencia
AB In construction projects, contingency reserves have traditionally been estimated based on a percentage of the total project cost, which is arbitrary and, thus, unreliable in practical cases. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable estimation. However, works on this topic have focused exclusively on the effects of aleatoric uncertainty, but ignored the impacts of other uncertainty types. In this paper, we present a method to quantitatively determine project cost contingency reserves based on Monte Carlo Simulation that considers the impact of not only aleatoric uncertainty, but also of the effects of other uncertainty kinds (stochastic, epistemic) on the total project cost. The proposed method has been validated with a real-case construction project in Spain. The obtained results demonstrate that the approach will be helpful for construction Project Managers because the obtained cost contingency reserves are consistent with the actual uncertainty type that affects the risks identified in their projects.
PB Elsevier
SN 0925-5273
YR 2022
FD 2022
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/54944
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/54944
LA eng
NO International Journal of Production Economics, 2022, vol. 253, 108626
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 18-nov-2024