RT info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
T1 Potential climatic influence on the maximum stand carrying capacity of 15 Mediterranean conifers and broadleaves
A1 Rodríguez de Prado, Diego
A2 Universidad de Valladolid. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenierías Agrarias
K1 Autoclareo
K1 Reineke
K1 Cambio climático
K1 Modelización
K1 Ciencia de datos
K1 1209.03 Análisis de Datos
K1 3308 Ingeniería y Tecnología del Medio Ambiente
AB Climate change projections for the Mediterranean basin predict a continuous increment inextreme drought and heat episodes, affecting forest dynamics, structure and composition.Understanding how climate influences the maximum size-density relationship (MSDR) istherefore critical to design adaptative silvicultural guidelines based on the potential standcarrying capacity of tree species. With this aim, data from the Third Spanish NationalForest Inventory (3NFI) and WorldClim databases were used to analyze climate relatedvariations of the maximum stand carrying capacity for 15 species from the Pinus, Fagusand Quercus genus. First, basic MSDR were fitted using linear quantile regression andobserved size-density data from monospecific 3NFI plots. Reference values of maximumstocking, expressed as SDImax, were estimated by species. In a second step, climatedependentMSDR models including 35 different annual and seasonal climatic variableswere fitted. The best climate-dependent MSDR model was selected by species accordingto the Akaike Information Criteria in order to analyze general and species-specific trendsin the SDImax variation. Results showed a common trend across species in SDIgenusvariation with smaller SDImax values linked to drier and warmer conditions, suggestingpotential reductions of the maximum stocking for this species based on projected climaticscenarios. Opposed to this trend, results for Pinus nigra suggest that milder winters aseffect of increments in minimum temperatures could beneficiate mountainous species.Humidity (expressed as the De Martonne Index) was found as key driver affecting SDImaxof Fagus species, since changes in spring and summer temperatures explained SDImaxvariations of Quercus species. Pinus species were indistinctively affected by temperatureand water stress. All the selected climate-dependent models improved the goodness of fitover the basic and the business-as-usual models including the De Martonne Index asindependent climatic variable. Our findings highlight the importance of using specificclimatic variables to better characterize climatic impacts on the MSDR. Models presentedin this study will allow to obtain more precise estimations of the maximum stocking fordifferent coniferous and broadleaved species, providing an advanced tool for managingMediterranean pure and mixed forests under different scenarios of climate change.
YR 2019
FD 2019
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/59448
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/59448
LA spa
DS UVaDOC
RD 02-dic-2024