RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: The case of Ecuador
A1 Espinoza Echeverría, Vicente Sebastián
A1 Fontalvo, Javier
A1 Ramírez, Paola
A1 Martí Herrero, Jaime Emilio
A1 Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita
K1 Petroleum industry and trade - Government policy
K1 Petróleo - Industria y comercio
K1 Petroleum reserves - Economic aspects
K1 Recursos petrolíferos
K1 Petróleo - Industria y comercio - Ecuador
K1 Ecuador - Condiciones económicas
K1 Energy development - Environmental aspects
K1 Aspectos ambientales del desarrollo energético
K1 Sustainable development
K1 Desarrollo sostenible
K1 Energy demand
K1 Energy policy - South America
K1 Política energética - América del Sur
K1 Degrowth
K1 Decrecimiento
K1 Development economics - Latin America
K1 Economía del desarrollo - América Latina
AB The aim of this paper is to analyze energy pathways for a fossil fuel rich developing country towards an energy transition considering national and international oil availability using Ecuador as a reference. An integrated assessment model has been developed to simulate energy transition scenarios considering constraints on oil availability at the national and global level. Results show that if current trends in energy demand and supply persist, energy scarcity would start around 2040 due to depletion of national oil reserves and restricted access to foreign oil. This would trigger a degrowth in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on petroleum products. Scenarios with conservative efforts might partially revert the increasing use of fossil fuels supported by policies for energy efficiency and substitution of liquid fuels with electricity mainly from renewables. However, energy shortages would still be foreseeable as well as a decay of the economy. Under a maximum efforts scenario with an optimistic availability of national oil, a moderate-sustained economic growth could be feasible. This shows that oil would still play a key role during the transition. Furthermore, ambitious policies must be implemented in the short term to smooth the effects of displacing oil as energy and income source.
PB MDPI
SN 1996-1073
YR 2022
FD 2022
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/61456
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/61456
LA eng
NO Energies, 2022, Vol. 15, Nº. 19, 6938
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 12-sep-2024