RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 On the impact of initial conditions in the forecast of Hurricane Leslie extratropical transition
A1 López Reyes, M
A1 González Alemán, Juan Jesús
A1 Sastre Marugán, Mariano
A1 Insua Costa, D
A1 Bolgiani, Pedro
A1 Martín Pérez, María Luisa
K1 Meteorología
K1 Climatología
K1 Extratropical transition
K1 Hurricane Leslie
K1 Initial conditions
K1 Transición extratropical
K1 Huracán leslie
K1 Condiciones iniciales
K1 2509 Meteorología
AB Hurricane Leslie (2018) was a non-tropical system that lasted for a long time undergoing several transitions between tropical and extratropical states. Its trajectory was highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Here the extratropical transition of Leslie is simulated using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with two different sets of initial conditions (IC): the operational analysis of the Integrate Forecast System (IFS) and the Global Forecast System (GFS).Discrepancies in Leslie position are found in the IC patterns, and in the intensity and amplitude of the dorsal-trough system in which Leslie is found. Differences are identified both in the geopotential height at 300 hPa and the geopotential thickness. Potential temperature in the dynamic tropopause shows a broader, more intense trough displaced western when using the IC-IFS. The IC-IFS simulation shows lesser trajectory errors but wind speed overestimation than the IC-GFS one. The complex situation of the extratropical transition, where Leslie interacts with a trough, increases the uncertainty associated with the intensification process.The disparities observed in the simulations are attributed to inaccuracies in generating the ICs. Both ICs generate different atmospheric configurations when propagated in time. Results suggest that during an extratropical transition in a highly baroclinic atmosphere, the IFS model's data assimilation method produced a more precise analysis than GFS due to the greater number of observations assimilated by the IFS, the greater spatial resolution of the model and the continuous adjustment of the simulations with the field of observations.
PB Elsevier
SN 0169-8095
YR 2023
FD 2023
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/61608
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/61608
LA eng
NO Atmospheric Research, 2023, vol. 295, 107020
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 07-ago-2024