RT info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
T1 Modelado y análisis del sistema energético ecuatoriano con un enfoque en recursos no renovables
A1 Espinoza Echeverría, Vicente Sebastián
A2 Universidad de Valladolid. Escuela de Doctorado
K1 Ingeniería energética
K1 Energy Systems
K1 Sistemás Energéticos
K1 System Dynamics
K1 Dinámica de Sistemas
K1 Energy Models
K1 Modelos Energéticos
K1 Fossil Fuels
K1 Combustibles Fósiles
K1 3305.32 Ingeniería de Estructuras
AB Energy is a key input for achieving economic growth and satisfying human needs. The increase of economic activity has triggered a rise in energy demand with a large share of fossil fuels in the mix. The use of these finite resources has caused environmental impacts that could compromise earths’ future if current trends persist regarding energy use. Thus, modelling future trajectories of socioeconomic and energy systems considering biophysical limits is a key point for assessing the sustainability of these possible futures. This doctoral thesis depicts the complete development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) energy-economy-environment for Ecuador that will assess energy scenarios up to 2050, with a previous modelling of national oil extraction considering geological constraints. The model named EEDEC (Ecuador Energy Development under Energy Constraints) has been developed using a System Dynamics approach and includes new features compared to previous IAMs for Ecuador. Some of the features included are representation of biophysical limits regarding energy availability at national and global scale, and its feedback on the economy and energy use, and modelling oil export policies. Potentiality of the model was shown through simulation of BAU scenarios. If current trends persist, energy shortages might occur causing a potential recession by 2040. Despite its condition of oil producing country, Ecuador maintains a high dependency on fuel imports. Which makes the country vulnerable to changes in global supply of liquid fuels.EEDEC model also assessed energy transition scenarios for Ecuador. This analysis shows that maximum efforts are necessary for a profound change of the country’s energy system. Policies for massive deployment of renewables for electricity generation, energy efficiency improvement, reduction of oil exports, and introduction of new technologies are necessary for all economic sectors, especially transportation. Even if scenarios depict a reduction in the use of oil products, these fuels will still be part of the energy mix by 2050. Ecuador would still depend on energy imports and be vulnerable to changes in energy availability in international markets.
YR 2023
FD 2023
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/61906
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/61906
LA spa
NO Escuela de Doctorado
DS UVaDOC
RD 27-dic-2024