RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Exploring the Influence of Seasonal Uncertainty in Project Risk Management
A1 Acebes Senovilla, Fernando
A1 Pajares Gutiérrez, Javier
A1 Galán Ordax, José Manuél
A1 López Paredes, Adolfo
K1 Uncertainty and variability; Risk Management; Monte Carlo Simulation; Criticality; Schedule Risk Baseline
AB For years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and complete task information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead to significant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider the presence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. We discuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of Monte Carlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, we represent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline.In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them to prioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate the relative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures.
PB Elsevier
SN 1877-0428
YR 2014
FD 2014
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/64888
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/64888
LA spa
NO Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, March 2014, 119, 329-338
DS UVaDOC
RD 17-jul-2024