RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article T1 To replant or to irrigate: A silvicultural decision model for afforestation projects A1 Río San José, Jorge del A1 Reque Kilchenmann, José Arturo A1 Martínez de Azagra Paredes, Andrés Manuel K1 Seedling survival K1 Dryland K1 Tending K1 Economic threshold K1 Micro-irrigation K1 3102.05 Riego K1 3106.08 Silvicultura AB This article develops an economic model that compares the option of replacement planting to maintain target density with the option of enhancing seedling survival from the beginning by applying irrigation. The model we develop uses variables common in forestry practice and yields the threshold value of seedling failure at which both alternatives offer the same economic result based on a comparative analysis of costs and benefits. By comparing this threshold with the level of seedling failure expected for an afforestation in the absence of irrigation, the planner can make an informed decision between both alternatives. The model has been applied to thirteen practical cases covering a wide range of plantations with different density, purpose and average annual net income. Based on the results obtained, a k-means clustering is carried out to identify five groups according to their suitability for irrigation. The sensitivity of the model's input variables in respect to the threshold of seedling failure is also analized. Irrigation is profitable when the expected level of seedling failure is high and/or the value of the threshold decision is low. The latter is usually the case at afforestations that require a low acceptable level of seedling failure and/or in productive plantation forestry. PB Elsevier SN 1389-9341 YR 2018 FD 2018 LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/65180 UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/65180 LA eng NO Forest Policy and Economics, 2018, vol 93, p. 18-29 NO Producción Científica DS UVaDOC RD 24-nov-2024