RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems
A1 Sampedro, Jon
A1 Waldhoff, Stephanie T.
A1 Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan
A1 Pardo, Guillermo
A1 Van Dingenen, Rita
A1 Arto, Iñaki
A1 del Prado, Agustín
A1 Maria Jose Sanz, Maria José
K1 Medio ambiente
K1 Ozone
K1 Yield damages
K1 Agricultural systems
K1 Integrated assessment
K1 5312.05 Energía
K1 3308 Ingeniería y Tecnología del Medio Ambiente
K1 5102.01 Agricultura
AB Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relativeyield losses (RYLs) driven by O3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010 to 2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0–6.0, 9.8–18.8, 6.7–10.6 and 10.4–12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O3. When O3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocksin future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8 B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2 B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2 B (China).
PB Elsevier
SN 1352-2310
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67422
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67422
LA spa
NO Atmospheric Environment, Abril, 2020, n. 231
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 26-dic-2024