RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Assessing hydropower potential under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios using integrated assessment modelling
A1 Calheiros, Tomás
A1 Beça, Pedro
A1 Capela Lourenço, Tiago
A1 Eggler, Lukas
A1 Mediavilla Pascual, Margarita
A1 Ferreras Alonso, Noelia
A1 Ramos Díez, Iván
A1 Samsó, Roger
A1 Distefano, Tiziano
A1 Pastor, Amandine
K1 Hydropower
K1 Energía hidráulica
K1 Integrated Assessment Model
K1 Sustainable development
K1 Desarrollo sostenible
K1 Renewable energy resources
K1 Energías renovables
K1 Climate change
K1 Clima - Cambios
K1 Climate change mitigation
K1 Clima - Cambios - Aspecto del medio ambiente
K1 Climatology
K1 Environment
K1 2502 Climatología
K1 5312.05 Energía
K1 3308 Ingeniería y Tecnología del Medio Ambiente
AB The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.
PB MDPI
SN 2071-1050
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/69714
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/69714
LA eng
NO Sustainability, 2024, Vol. 16, Nº. 4, 1548
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 12-sep-2024