RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Assessing the energy and socio-macroeconomic impacts of the EV transition: A UK case study 2020-2050
A1 Nieto Vega, Jaime
A1 Brockway, Paul E.
A1 Sakai, Marco
A1 Barrett, John
K1 Electric vehicles
K1 Ecological macroeconomics
K1 Whole systems analysis
K1 Energy
K1 Transitions
K1 Rebound effect
K1 Energy-economy model
K1 5306 Económica del Cambio Tecnológico
AB The electric vehicle (EV) transition is underway in the UK and many other countries worldwide, switching from fossil fuel powered internal combustion engine (ICE) road transport to EVs that can be powered by renewable electricity. Whilst the projected energy and carbon reduction impacts are well understood, we have only a partial view of the potential socio-macroeconomic effects of the EV transition, i.e. the impacts on GDP and jobs. Common energy-economy models feature only limited energy-economy integration, and only assign a small role for energy in economic growth. Thus whilst economic changes such as increases to investment can feed into macroeconomic impact assessment, the impacts of the energy system changes are potentially underestimated.In response, we use a novel macro-econometric model – MARCO-UK – to conduct a whole system analysis with two main scenarios: an ICE baseline (with no EV transition) and 100% EV transition scenario to 2050. We investigate the effects of the scenarios on the UK's energy system (efficiency, energy services, rebound) and economic system (employment, GDP, debt), under different conditions of investment, rebound and electricity prices.We find the most significant impacts stem from energy system changes, with annual economic growth rising from 1.71%/year (baseline) to 2.25%/year in the main EV scenario. In contrast, the impacts from economic investment changes are much lower in scale. Therefore, the socio-macroeconomic benefits of the EV transition may be underestimated. We also find that overall long-term economy-wide rebound in our central EV scenario is 76%, which means the energy savings from the EV transition may be less than hoped. Overall, our analysis identifies potential trade-offs regarding the labour market, levels of indebtedness, energy rebound and associated carbon emissions that should be taken into consideration.
PB Elsevier
SN 0306-2619
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/73064
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/73064
LA eng
NO Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 370, 123367
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 22-ene-2025