RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Aggregated Demand Flexibility Prediction of Residential Thermostatically Controlled Loads and Participation in Electricity Balance Markets
A1 Martín-Crespo, Alejandro
A1 Baeyens Lázaro, Enrique
A1 Saludes-Rodil, Sergio
A1 Frechoso Escudero, Fernando
K1 demand flexibility prediction
K1 electricity balance markets
K1 Monte Carlo simulation
K1 thermostatically controlled loads
K1 virtual batteries
K1 3306 Ingeniería y Tecnología Eléctricas
AB The aggregate demand flexibility of a set of residential thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) can be represented by a virtual battery (VB) in order to manage their participation in the electricity markets. For this purpose, it is necessary to know in advance and with a high level of reliability the maximum power that can be supplied by the aggregation of TCLs. A probability function of the power that can be supplied by a VB is introduced in this paper. This probability function is used to predict the demand flexibility using a rigorous experimental probabilistic method based on a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and extremum search by bisection (MC&ESB) algorithm. As a result, the maximum flexibility power that a VB can provide is obtained. MC&ESB performs the demand flexibility prediction with a given confidence level and taking into account TCLs and users? real-time constraints, which is a novel contribution. The performance and validity of the proposed method are demonstrated and discussed in three different case studies where a VB bids its aggregate power in the Spanish electricity balancing markets (SEBMs).
PB John Wiley and Sons Ltd
SN 0363-907X
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/75758
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/75758
LA eng
NO International Journal of Energy Research, Abril 2025, vol. 2025, n. 1, p. 1-10
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 18-jun-2025