RT info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
T1 Oferta de trabajo y desempleo a nivel macroeconómico: cinco ensayos
A1 Maridueña Larrea, Ángel Augusto
A2 Universidad de Valladolid. Escuela de Doctorado
K1 Macroeconomía
K1 Added worker effect
K1 Efecto trabajador añadido
K1 Discouraged worker effect
K1 Efecto trabajador desanimado
K1 Business cycle
K1 Ciclo económico
K1 Unemployment invariance
K1 Invarianza del desempleo
K1 5308 Economía General
AB This thesis analyzes the macroeconomic relationship between the unemployment rate and labor supply, particularly emphasizing the validity of the Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis (UIH), which posits that changes in labor supply do not persistently affect the level of unemployment in the long run. The research highlights that, although the unemployment rate is widely used as an indicator of the business cycle, it presents limitations in capturing specific labor market phenomena, especially those related to changes in labor force participation.The literature presents mixed results regarding the UIH, attributed to institutional, methodological, and contextual differences. When this hypothesis does not hold, specific phenomena emerge during different phases of the business cycle. During recessions, the Added Worker Effect (AWE) is identified, where additional household members enter the labor market, and the Discouraged Worker Effect (DWE), characterized by individuals who stop searching for employment due to low expectations. In economic expansions, the Subtracted Worker Effect (SWE) and the Encouraged Worker Effect (EWE) occur, where labor force participation respectively decreases or increases.In Latin America, previous studies provide empirical evidence of the AWE during recessive periods, particularly when analyzing female labor participation, which has significantly increased to exceed 50%. However, this dynamic does not always persist during expansionary phases. These variations underscore the need to analyze sensitivities by gender and regional economic context.Methodologically, the thesis employs advanced techniques in time series and spatial econometrics. Initially, it tests the UIH using cointegration models with vector autoregressions and error correction mechanisms (VARM–VECM), applied first to Latin American countries and then to a broader sample from the Americas. To assess the temporal stability of these labor market relationships, the study incorporates rolling regressions and threshold regression models, identifying different regimes associated with expansionary or recessive phases.Moreover, the thesis explores the relationship between economic growth and unemployment at the global level through the lens of Okun’s Law, using a sample of 173 countries. By decomposing the Okun coefficient, the research distinguishes between direct and indirect effects on unemployment, evaluating international variability and potential spatial effects through global spatial dependence indices.Finally, the spatial dimension is explored specifically for Ecuador and 23 of its provinces, recognizing that labor decisions are influenced by regional interactions. Advanced spatial techniques are applied to test the Bandwagon Worker Effect (BWE), which emphasizes the importance of social and geographical influences on labor participation decisions. The results reinforce the relevance of considering local and regional contexts when designing labor and economic policies.Altogether, this research provides solid empirical evidence on labor market dynamics and their sensitivity to economic cycles and spatial contexts, highlighting the importance of gender-based analysis and offering useful tools for policies aimed at effectively addressing unemployment, especially in Latin America.
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/79915
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/79915
LA spa
NO Escuela de Doctorado
DS UVaDOC
RD 12-ene-2026