RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Nonautonomous modelling in energy balance models of climate. Limitations of averaging and climate sensitivity
A1 Longo, Iacopo P.
A1 Obaya, Rafael
A1 Sanz, Ana M.
K1 Energy balance model, nonautonomous dynamics, averaging theory, climate sensitivity.
AB Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time on a fast timescale, and to exhibit chaos in a precise sense. The dynamics of this model is described in terms of three existing nonautonomous equilibria, the upper one being attracting and representing the present temperature profile. The theory of averaging is used to compare the nonautonomous model and its time-averaged version. We analyse the influence of the qualitative properties of the time-dependent coefficients and obtain reasonable approximations close to the upper hyperbolic solution. Furthermore, previous concepts of two-point response and sensitivity functions are adapted to the nonautonomous context and used to value the increase in temperature when a forcing caused by CO_2 and other emissions intervenes.
PB Elsevier
SN 0167-2789
YR 2026
FD 2026
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/80052
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/80052
LA eng
NO Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, January 2006, 485, 135038.
DS UVaDOC
RD 24-nov-2025