RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Fertility Transition Across Subnational Areas of Sub‐Saharan Africa: Where do They Stand and What has Contributed Most?
A1 Sánchez Paez, David Antonio
A1 Schoumaker, Bruno
K1 Demografía - África al Sur del Sahara
K1 Fecundidad
K1 Salud reproductiva
K1 Dinámica de población
K1 Control de la natalidad y planificación familiar
K1 Economía regional
K1 Capitales
K1 Transición demográfica
K1 Otras zonas urbanas
K1 Determinantes inmediatos de la fecundidad
K1 Zonas rurales
K1 Zonas subnacionales
K1 África subsahariana
K1 5403.02 Demogeografía
K1 5309.01 Concentración Económica
AB Stylized models of fertility transition predict that fertility declines first in urban areas and then in rural areas. Although capital cities are assumed to be at the forefront of a country's fertility transition, they have not been widely studied in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, fertility transition in other urban and rural areas has also been understudied. Using 155 Demographic and Health Surveys, we first calculate fertility rates to determine at which stage each of the three subnational areas in 34 countries is in the fertility transition. We then estimate the fertility-inhibiting effect of the proximate determinants of fertility to analyze what has contributed most to the transition. Our results confirm that capital cities lead fertility transition, as they tend to be one phase further in the transition than other urban areas and two phases further than rural areas. We find that the subnational areas that have made the most rapid progress in the transition are those with a sharp increase in the fertility-inhibiting effect of contraception; however, contraceptive use remains low. Although the inhibiting effect of contraception increases as the fertility transition progresses, the greatest inhibiting effect is that of postpartum infecundability, which is a common feature for virtually all subnational areas, even at the most advanced stages of the transition. In the context of stalled fertility in sub-Saharan Africa, reducing the duration of postpartum infecundability without offsetting it with an increase in contraceptive use leaves open the possibility of further fertility stalls or longer-lasting current stalls.
PB Wiley
SN 1544-8444
YR 2026
FD 2026
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/83918
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/83918
LA eng
NO Population, Space and Place, 2026, vol. 32, n. 2, artículo e70244
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 06-abr-2026