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Título
MEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints
Autor
Año del Documento
2020
Editorial
Royal Society of Chemistry
Descripción
Producción Científica
Documento Fuente
Energy & Environmental Science, 2020, 13,986
Resumo
A diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input–output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work.
Materias Unesco
5312.05 Energía
Palabras Clave
MEDEAS (Modelización del desarrollo energético bajo límites ambientales y socioeconómicos)
ISSN
1754-5692
Revisión por pares
SI
Patrocinador
Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project CO2017-85110-R)
Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project JCI-2016–28833)
MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287.
LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 821105
Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project JCI-2016–28833)
MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287.
LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 821105
Patrocinador
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/691287
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821105
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821105
Version del Editor
Propietario de los Derechos
© 2020 The Royal Society of Chemistry
Idioma
eng
Tipo de versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Derechos
openAccess
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