Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:http://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/44660
Título
Scenario analysis and sensitivity exploration of the MEDEAS Europe energy-economy-environment model
Año del Documento
2020
Editorial
Elsevier
Descripción
Producción Científica
Documento Fuente
Energy Strategy Reviews, 2020, vol. 32, p. 100582
Abstract
Today's decision-makers rely heavily on Integrated Assessment Models to guide the decarbonisation of the energy system. Uncertainty is embedded in the assumptions these models are built upon. Unless those uncertainties are adequately assessed, using Integrated Assessment Models for policy design is unadvised. In this work we run Monte Carlo simulations with the MEDEAS model at European Union scale to assess how the uncertainties on the main drivers of the transition affect key socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In addition, One-at-a-time sensitivity exploration is performed to grade the contribution of a set of model parameters to the uncertainty in the same key indicators. The combination of the uncertainties in the model drivers magnify the uncertainty in the model outputs, which widens over time. Parameters affecting sectorial and households' energy efficiency and households' transport energy use ranked amongst the most impacting ones on simulation results.
Materias Unesco
33 Ciencias Tecnológicas
Palabras Clave
Transición energética
Sustentabilidad
ISSN
2211-467X
Revisión por pares
SI
Patrocinador
European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, grant agreement No 691287 of the Framework Program for Research and Innovation actions, H2020 LCE-21-2015
Patrocinador
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/691287
Propietario de los Derechos
© Elsevier
Idioma
eng
Tipo de versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Derechos
openAccess
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