Un estudio de la relación de Okun en la Unión Europea

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se efectúa un análisis de la Ley de Okun tanto en su versión en ‘brechas’ como en su versión en ‘primeras diferencias’ en la UE-15. Para ello, se tiene en cuenta el marco teórico, repasando la literatura actual existente y las diversas cuestiones metodológicas y econométricas. Los resultados obtenidos muestran una gran divergencia en el coeficiente de Okun en la Unión Europea. A su vez se comprueba que la crisis financiera de 2008 produjo un cambio estructural en Finlandia, Grecia, Portugal, Reino Unido y Suecia. Los principales determinantes de las diferencias en los resultados, por orden de importancia, son la tasa de desempleo media, el peso de las actividades comerciales y turísticas en el PIB, el tamaño de la economía sumergida, y el grado de temporalidad.

In this work an analysis of Okun’s Law is carried out, both in its ‘gap’ version and in its ‘first differences’ version in the EU-15. To do so, the theoretical framework is taken into account, reviewing the current literature and the various methodological and econometric issues. The results obtained show a great divergence in the Okun’s coefficient in the European Union. Furthermore, it is proved that the 2008 financial crisis produced a structural change in Finland, Greece, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Sweden. The driving factors of the differences in the results, by order of importance, are the mean unemployment rate, the share of touristic and commercial activities in GDP, the size of the shadow economy, and the degree of temporality

In this work an analysis of Okun’s Law is carried out, both in its ‘gap’ version and in its ‘first differences’ version in the EU-15. To do so, the theoretical framework is taken into account, reviewing the current literature and the various methodological and econometric issues. The results obtained show a great divergence in the Okun’s coefficient in the European Union. Furthermore, it is proved that the 2008 financial crisis produced a structural change in Finland, Greece, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Sweden. The driving factors of the differences in the results, by order of importance, are the mean unemployment rate, the share of touristic and commercial activities in GDP, the size of the shadow economy, and the degree of temporality.