Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/69714
Título
Assessing hydropower potential under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios using integrated assessment modelling
Autor
Año del Documento
2024
Editorial
MDPI
Descripción
Producción Científica
Documento Fuente
Sustainability, 2024, Vol. 16, Nº. 4, 1548
Abstract
The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.
Materias (normalizadas)
Hydropower
Energía hidráulica
Integrated Assessment Model
Sustainable development
Desarrollo sostenible
Renewable energy resources
Energías renovables
Climate change
Clima - Cambios
Climate change mitigation
Clima - Cambios - Aspecto del medio ambiente
Climatology
Environment
Materias Unesco
2502 Climatología
5312.05 Energía
3308 Ingeniería y Tecnología del Medio Ambiente
ISSN
2071-1050
Revisión por pares
SI
Patrocinador
Fundación Portuguesa para la Ciencia y la Tecnología (FCT) - (project UIDB/00329/2020)
Unión Europea, European Union’s Horizon 2020 - (grant 821105)
Unión Europea, European Union’s Horizon 2020 - (grant 821105)
Version del Editor
Propietario de los Derechos
© 2024 The authors
Idioma
eng
Tipo de versión
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Derechos
openAccess
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