RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 Stochastic earned value analysis using Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning techniques
A1 Acebes Senovilla, Fernando
A1 Pereda, María
A1 Poza Garcia, David Jesús
A1 Pajares Gutiérrez, Javier
A1 Galán Ordax, José Manuél
K1 Project Management; Earned Value Management; Project control; Monte Carlo simulation; Project risk management; Statistical learning; Anomaly Detection
AB The aim of this paper is to describe a new integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies. More specifically, the approach uses extensive Monte Carlo simulation to obtain information about the expected behavior of the project. This dataset is exploited in several ways using different statistical learning methodologies in a structured fashion. Initially, simulations are used to detect if project deviations are a consequence of the expected variability using Anomaly Detection algorithms. If the project follows this expected variability, probabilities of success in cost and time and expected cost and total duration of the project can be estimated using classification and regression approaches.
PB Elsevier
SN 0263-7863
YR 2015
FD 2015
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/64893
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/64893
LA spa
NO International Journal of Project Management, October 2015, 33 (7), 1597-1609
DS UVaDOC
RD 01-jun-2024