RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 On the precursor environments to mountain lee wave clouds in central Iberia under CMIP6 projections
A1 Díaz Fernández, Javier
A1 Calvo Sancho, Carlos
A1 Bolgiani, Pedro
A1 González Alemán, Juan Jesús
A1 Farrán Martín, José Ignacio
A1 Sastre Marugán, Mariano
A1 Martín Pérez, María Luisa
K1 Mountain waves
K1 Montañas - España
K1 Meteorology
K1 Global climate models
K1 Climatology
K1 Clima - Cambios - España
K1 Winds
K1 Vientos - España
K1 España - Clima
K1 Atmospheric sciences
K1 2509 Meteorología
K1 2502 Climatología
K1 2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
AB Mountain lee waves present significant hazards to aviation, often inducing turbulence and aircraft icing. The current study focuses on understanding the potential impact of global climate change on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud episodes over central Iberia. We examine the suitability of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in predicting these environments using the ERA5 reanalysis as a benchmark for performance. The dataset is divided into two periods: historical data (2001–2014) and projections for the SSP5–8.5 future climate scenario (2015–2100). The variations and trends in precursor environments between historical data and future climate scenarios are exposed, with a particular focus on the expansion of the Azores High towards the Iberian Peninsula, resulting in increased zonal winds throughout the Iberian Peninsula in the future. However, the increase in zonal wind is insufficient to modify the wind pattern, so future mountain lee wave cloud events will not vary significantly. The relative humidity trends reveal no significant changes. Moreover, the risk of icing precursor environments connected with mountain lee wave clouds is expected to decrease in the future, due to rising temperatures. Our results highlight that the EC-EARTH3 GCM reveals the closest alignment with ERA5 data, and statistically significant differences between the historical and future climate scenario periods are presented, making EC-EARTH3 a robust candidate for conducting future studies on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud events.
PB MDPI
SN 2073-4433
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67332
UL https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/67332
LA eng
NO Atmosphere, 2024, Vol. 15, Nº. 1, 128
NO Producción Científica
DS UVaDOC
RD 17-jun-2024