The Role of Correlations Between Activity Durations in Project Schedule Risk Analysis

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of correlations between activity durations on project uncertainty and risk sensitivity indexes using Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that correlations have little effect on expected project duration but significantly affect variance and sensitivity measures, especially cruciality (CrI) and SSI, while criticality (CI) remains relatively stable. The effects are strongly moderated by network topology, particularly Project Tightness (PT), which emerges as a key factor explaining the magnitude of these changes.